Auction house series – Make money off position hero sets

The video got a little choppy today for some reason. I suggest you just read below instead of watching today.

If you did what I said 2 weeks ago and bought the players I told you to you are rolling in coins like a pig in slop.

If you did what I said last week and bought Yanda under 100k, you lost some coins as he never went up. I personally am out about 150k in paper losses if I sold them now

But we’ll get to that in a little bit. Let’s talk about how to make some coins off PH speculators

Fast coins but it takes some leg work

Sponsor: Damon Harrison, because he’s going to make us some coins

DT Set and cost to do it

Suh                       57000

MCCoy                 9000

Dareus                 7000

Donald                 6000

Hankins               9000

4 Elite Badges    60000

DT Badges           5000       On Wednesday/Thursday

25 gold DTs         30000

15 Elite DTs         45000    Wilfork is cheap

10 Specific Gold 15000

Total                      243000

Minus Reward   -25000

Total Set cost      218000

Damon Harrison is selling for 350,000 coins

HUGE Profit for a half hours work

Same thing with RG set I calculated last week. For some reason people aren’t doing the sets as they should to get the profit off of it. It is investors offloading their pieces instead of building the set. They don’t want to put in the extra effort. So we will and make bank.

If you buy the players that will go into each set, say one of each base elite and RTTP for a position before it drops you can make out even better.

So I originally said buy and hold these pieces. People have been doing that, buying the highest overall base/RTTP in each position and selling cheap due to competition. So now we take advantage of the many speculators, buy their pieces they’re selling off and profit ourselves. But again, watch the market trend as this method gets out there more.

I feel I should re-iterate this in most videos, buy players as they are in packs or toppers. Like Sunday’s flashback topper, guess what was low yesterday/today?

And players are always lowest a couple hours after a new hot bundle with a good topper is put on the market, ideally Saturdays when a lot of people are on.

The first time flashbacks were put into packs I bought right as they came out and sold 4 days later at a 40%-80% markup.

I wasn’t able to get on Saturday morning and buy but next time either flashbacks or throwbacks or combine or whatever is put in packs, look to snipe a player low, hold until they are out of packs and sell

 

How to decide when to buy a bundle

Look at the topper. Give yourself the average return you think you could get from it. If the topper alone is about 50% of the coins you could get from buying it off the black market at a rate of 9 dollars per 100,000 coins, I’d say that’s a good bundle. And this ratio changes through the year.

If you were with me at the beginning of Madden 16 you heard me talk about how buying bundles was better than buying coins at the time.

Well people did that, sold for cash and made a good bit of money.

But as people leave MUT for the year a lot of coins go up for sale, therefore making the coins cheaper to buy as the sellers progressively ask less and less cash for them.

The bundle that stands out to me most was the Black Friday bundle. Basically 80 dollars guaranting you 400k with Mean Joe Greene. This topper alone was more than 100% of the coins you could get from the black market. The last best bundle we got. Every topper since then has been under the black market unless you got lucky.

So for example lets go through this Xfactor bundle with a guaranteed flashback.

A flashback could be great or terrible, but let’s take a center value of around 200k. So you are paying about $70 for 200,000 coins plus the booty packs. So that’s about $35 per 100,000 coins. Pretty terrible. The thing about today’s packs were the silver tickets which drew a lot of people into purchases. But those were best found in pro packs I believe so it had little value to add to our calculation especially since they are so hard to pull.

I bet the next best packs we get are guaranteed Ultimate Legend Toppers. I bet we get Golden tickets in the next week then either the Easter promo or UL topper this weekend.

But I could be wrong, what do I know, I’m just a fox on the internet.

Madden NFL Ultimate Team 15 market history and looking forward to MUT 16

This video is where we take a look back on Madden NFL Ultimate Team 15’s market and what happened on what days through the year. This will help us going into MUT 16 to forecast which days are best to hold coins and when is best to buy.

Special Thanks to muthead.com for providing the resources to do my research on the promotions and player counts. Without that website, this video is not possible.

So, in order to look forward to Madden Ultimate Team 16, we need to look back. Today’s video is a history lesson on MUT 15 and what releases did to the market and how promotions shifted it.

This video will be handy going forward to try to anticipate the market moves next year. Remember the important dates I mention later because you want to be ahead of the market. Or don’t remember and just subscribe. I’ll tell you about them as the year progresses in MUT 16.

We started MUT 15 with 100 base elites

If you pull one early, wait until September 14th of 2015 to sell it. They’ll probably hold value for another 2 to 3 weeks after this date though. On Launch day, there aren’t enough coins to support a big purchase. Once people start stacking them, thats when you want to sell. That takes roughly two to three weeks to start happening. Or you could sell right away and and get coins to flip cards if that’s your style.

32 Captain Cards and 16 Flashbacks were available at launch. Along with Style Peyton and Style Kuechly. Don’t invest in positions that have style rewards.

Cover athlete Richard Sherman is 99 overall

10 Legends Cards were available at release Steve Largent, George Blanda, Sammy Baugh, Dave Casper, Troy Aikmen, Michael Irvin, William Perry, Warren Moon, Franco Harris, Jack Ham. These ranged from 90 to 93.

Team of the Week

Rising Stars

Football Outsiders – I consider all weekly promotions market stabilizers because of the amount of coins coming into the economy, there needs to be new cards to stimulate spending of coins and taxes taking coins.

Legends – They finished releasing new legends when the playoffs came around.

Signature series – Although they will probably kill this because it wasn’t very popular.

Monday night heros

Mystery

Primetime performers if an NFL record is broken. I.E. Devin Hester and Peyton Manning

I hope they don’t kill awareness in the begging of MUT 16 like they did in MUT 15. Actually lower the physical stats and balance the awareness. Or will people complain too much about players being ripped off with bad speed?

I don’t mention Flashbacks and M25 throwbacks in my analysis because I don’t feel they alter the market enough when they were released to make note of when new ones were added. They effected the badge market for sure though. I don’t think the badge market is one to do a video on because there is not much to learn from it. It’s pure speculation that can easily put you in the poor house with one bundle topper.

Madden 15 – released August 26th. Madden 16 launches on August 25th of 2015. So move the dates I say below up 1 when you consider MUT 16.

August 28 – Rising Stars – Weekly. I consider all weekly promotions market stabilizers because with the amount of coins coming into the economy, there needs to be new cards to stimulate spending of coins and taxes taking coins to balance it.

August 30 – New Legends – 93 overall Ahman Greene and 91 overall Otto Graham. Weekly

September 1 – Team of the week starts. 10 players each week. Preseason Team of the week. 86 overall was the highest cards this week. Michael Sam and Zach Mettenberger

September 5 – Football Outsiders Preseason Top Prospects. 5 cards, 83 to 87 overall. Weekly.

Sept 8 – 1st regular season Team of the Week is released – 10 Players. 89 and 90 overall are highest. One on offense, one on defense

Sept 9 – Signature Series. Same players as the base ones, add 4 Certificate of Authenticity to increase their styles. Used to complete style challenges. Bust program that wasn’t popular. Weekly.

September 12 – FO 5 players. 90 overall Antonio Brown

As you’ll notice, not many of those cards dwarfed the top of the elites early. Those weekly programs held until…

October 1st, Breast Cancer Awareness cards were released, which was 1 month and 1 week after launch. 5 elites 88-90 with a 25 card set reward of Ray Lewis 95 Overall.

And take note going forward, cards started falling in price days before promos hit as people anticipated them. But even if you are late, the day before a promo hits is still a good time to sell. And buying the day of the promo then selling the next two is good because of the dead cat bounce of markets.

October 4th, Unannounced limited editions started coming out. First was 92 overall Muhammad Wilkerson. I want more limited edition and 24 hour cards next year.

October 7th, Big Patch came out for Madden

October 7th, next unannounced LE came out. BCA Mike Iupati

October 10th, BCA 2nd series cards were released. 8 Elites (89-91), 20 golds.

October 24th, Most Feared Promotion – Big market crash. 13 Elites, 25 gold. 4 limited edition elites. Set reward 96 Watt. Limited Editions were: 93-94. Elites: 89-90

November 5th, Road to the Playoffs. 32 MVP sets which unlocked 93 overall cards. Big crash. 50% or more. Late October/Early November is probably the 2nd biggest crash we had during the year. Duel style challenges added, reward of 95 Pouncey and 95 Ryan Kerrigan. Which again means don’t invest in those positions long term. Road Master reward of 96 Earl Thomas. 25 RTTP Elites added besides those 3 listed ranging from 87 to 92 overall

November 11th, Weekly positional Sets (silver TE, Bronze MLB) replaces Signature Series

November 24th – Ultimate Feast. 11 Elites added. 88-98. 5 above 95 overall. Market falls again.

December 17th, Ultimate Freeze – 25 Elites released gradually. Out of Position players made a comeback. One of the first presents is Bo Jackson to spur spending. Get on these promos early. I really liked this promo the first time they did it. Didn’t crash the market but brought out fun new players.

January 7th – We find out there is no playoff promo. Riots insue

January 9th – Ultimate Freeze 2 happens, people are appeased.

January 10th – The last “new” legend was released. Night Train Lane. After this was all rehashed for playoff content.

January 20th – Team of the Year – 20 players 94 to 97 overall. These players caused the great January crash. Well, these players and the fact at this point is when they started having bundles every day. This made people spend more money, putting more players on the market than just having the occasional bundle. The biggest market crash of the year. Quality players at every position released and they weren’t all that difficult to come by.

January 26th – Superbowl content. 8 players 97 to 99. 6 from 92 to 95. These players kept the market down hard on the day of release. For example, on January 6th, Ahman Greene’s Ultimate Feast price was 250,000 coins. On January 27th, it 107,000 coins. How would you feel if your portfolio sank 57% in 3 weeks? My least favorite time in MUT this year. Two bad promotions back to back within days of each other.

Feb 1 – Superbowl

Feb 2 – Market inflates tremendously due to superbowl coin ups. Remember this date next year. Or don’t and subscribe to this channel because I will remind you. Ahman green popped 50% the day after the Superbowl before sinking back down to previous levels the following Saturday.

Feb 3rd through 6th –NFL Honors cards were released. 7 players 97 to 99

The next week is what I call the weekly replacement week. They replaced all in season weekly releases with new promotions.

Feb 7th – Ultimate Legends – Mike Vick and Mike Webster. 99 overall. One 24 hr boss card. weekly. Market crashed to pull packs for Vick. Plus Lombardi bundle that guaranteed 1 mystery ticket, crashing that market.

Feb 8th – All Rookie Team. 4 players 88 to 93 overall. Weekly.

Feb 9th – Position Heroes. Weekly

Feb 11th – Final Editions. Weekly.

Feb 12th – Combine Warrior Released weekly.

Feb 13th – Mutseason update – Gauntlet, Team Trophy sets to unlock 99 Barry, Ultimate Master set released to reward Kam Chancellor and Byron Maxwell. More flashback, SV and M25 released. May have caused inflation due to the gauntlet being an easy-ish way to unlock coins.

Feb 26th – Ultimate legend topper released. I thought this was crazy at the time to guarantee collectables or base players. This promo repeats itself every two weeks from here on out. Keeping Ultimate Legends in range of mere mortals such as myself.

March 7th – Golden Tickets return to MUT 15. I spend too much money chasing one.

March 20th – Silver Tickets

March 21st – First Golden Tickets are released. Eric Berry and ODJ.  Followed the next day by FS Calvin Johnson and Brandon Browner. Then repeated weekly after that. Releasing Saturday and Sunday. EA just created 3 days in a row that got people to spend money getting progressively better rewards each day. First with the silver tickets, then golden, then the better golden tickets. I wonder if the spending would have been different if they would have reversed the order.

March 29th – NFL movers were started. Added to packs with a 24 hour player released every Sunday to give people extra motivation to open packs on Saturday and Sundays with the Golden tickets, UL, and movers all having cards dropping those days.

March 30th – Easter Program – Similar to the Ultimate Freeze program except you can’t sell or buy eggs. You could add them to sets to get prizes like packs, badges, or collectables. Also, limited edition eggs were put into packs, similar to other promotions. I hate when you can’t buy or sell collectables.

April 22nd – NFL draft info released.

April 30th – NFL draft. Prices on all cards not 99 overall sunk badly on this day. Everybody was scrambling for coins for the new players. Prices rebounded slightly towards the weekend. 32 players released 93-97 overall. This shows you how messed up the Team of the Year was. 3 months prior to this 20 players 94 to 97 were released.

May 1 – Combine Monsters released – 2 players. Created a sellers market for all Combine Warriors.

May 3rd – Tim Tebow is released. Thank Jesus.

May 4th – Cover Vote athletes are announced. Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Patrick Peterson. Odell Beckham Jr. wins as I predicted he would April 24th.

This basically brings us up to date. I do not believe there are any other scheduled promos that will crash the market again this year. But I’m bad at predictions, because what do I know, I’m just a fox.

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